Natural hazard scenarios

Natural hazard scenarios are "what if" stories that use science, data, and community knowledge to explore how events like earthquakes, floods, or landslides could affect people, property, and communities.

They can't tell us exactly when or where something will happen, but they help make natural hazards feel real and relatable. Scenarios show the range of possible impacts, from how big an event could be to what everyday life might look like in the aftermath.

Scenarios can help you to:

• understand how hazards can combine, be concurrent or cascade (for example, how heavy rain can trigger landslides)
• visualise impacts on homes, infrastructure, and communities
• think through what you would do before, during, and after an event
• have more informed conversations about risk and what level of risk you are comfortable with

Knowing that an earthquake or flood could happen is one thing, but understanding what it might actually look like - which roads could close, which homes might be affected, how long services could be disrupted - helps people, councils, and planners make better decisions now, before an event occurs.

Councils and planners can use scenarios to identify the most at-risk areas and factor that into land use rules, building consents, and emergency plans. Insurers can use them to assess coverage needs. As as a homeowner or renter, scenarios can help you see how natural hazards might affect your home or community, and what steps are worth taking to reduce your risk and prepare.